May 16, 2023
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As India aspires to be a global power, it must shoulder global responsibility and play a role to resolve crises like Ukraine. Ukraine, which could narrowly be constructed as a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, or a Eurasian conflict, has now increasingly become a global problem. The war for more than one year gives a worrying signal that it is going to stay there, with prospects of further escalation, even nuclear conflagration. That is certainly not a good sign for international peace. India as an aspiring global power or Vishwa Guru, a term which has recently been popularized in Indian political imagination, should play an active role to address the conflict.
Ukraine is certainly a difficult nut to crack, and more so when the parties to the conflict – particularly Russia and Ukraine – have rigid positions about the outcome. India finds it difficult to play a peacemaker as it will be akin to challenging the rigid positions of both the parties, and that may not appear propitious for its relations with Russia. But that should not deter Indian leaders and diplomats to explore creative ways to nudge both the parties to engage in dialogue, and even offer its good offices for the purpose. India must take Russia into confidence and bring its leaders the message that its role is not going to affect bilateral relations. Certainly, it is not an easy task. But India must use its political imagination, employ its soft and hard power, and use its official and non-official channels in this direction. Narasimha Rao despite political differences deputed A. B. Vajpayee as head of the Indian delegation to the UN in 1994. India could develop a political consensus across party lines and employ best available talent to explore pathways to address the conflict peacefully. And it is this unity in political vision that could galvanize India to be the Vishwa Guru.
Perhaps Russia would not be averse to an Indian role if India leaders convey the message to Russian leaders that the Indian role would not undermine Russian interests but at the same time they must convince Russian leaders that the protracted conflict is no more a zero-sum game. Ukraine would certainly welcome an Indian role. Already Ukrainian leaders and diplomats are trying to impress upon the Indian leaders to visit Ukraine. Perhaps as a starting point, Indian diplomats, not high-ranking leaders, go to Kiev and Moscow and meet the leaders with a clear message of peace. There are many areas on which consensus could be built. One area is certainly ceasefire – implying while the conflict is alive, and both parties have contested positions on the conflict and territory – they are not fighting on the ground.
Both Russia and Ukraine are now suffering war fatigue, almost now falling short of weapons to fight, looking for foreign weapons. Hence as a first step both sides will be welcoming such a step even while holding on to their visions of the conflict. Second, India can try to develop a framework of dialogue between Russian and Ukrainian leaders and even offer its good offices for it as both the countries may be averse to travel to each other’s territory for dialogue. While working on developing an atmosphere of mutual trust between the two countries, it can nudge both the countries to focus on non-contentious issues such as safety of trade routes and nontargeting of civilizations before exploring pathways for solution of contentious issues like NATO expansion, Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory, and so on.
India would want peace to prevail in the region as the protracted conflict for the last one year has affected the global economy including India’s, directly or indirectly. Indian leaders have already made statements that India wants a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The Indian position of not directly intervening in the conflict, while making pronouncements for peace, makes sense, but in practice it has not helped address the conflict.
It is not that India never intervened to address international issues. India’s role in the Korean Crisis, or in developing forums like Non-Aligned Movement to address global power rivalry are certainly noteworthy in this regard. It is necessary that India builds on its heritage of peace and dialogue to creatively develop policies to address the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It must use all powers in its arsenal including diplomatic, soft and hard, by bringing both the elements of Kautilya and Gandhi as necessary, to play an effective role in the Ukrainian crisis.
India’s positive role in Ukraine would accrue multiple positive results. First, it will enhance its image as a global player and a peacemaker. Second, it would, while assuring Russia’s friendship, provide India an opportunity to develop friendship with Ukraine, a kind of new gateway to Europe, thus further enhancing its position before the regional grouping, European Union and its allies, including the US. The US is already prodding India to play an active role, hence such a role will promote India-US relations.
(This article was published on my Times of India blog, Periscope, under a different title: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/periscope/why-india-should-engage-ukraine/)
