October 17, 2023
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Analyzing the Israel-Palestine conflict as a protracted social conflict is complex, as it involves not only material factors such as territory and resources, but also identities, histories and psychologies, permeating deep into the respective societies. Such conflicts cannot be resolved by military means or by territorial or economic transactions, but must run a very difficult and dangerous course before any possibility of transformation. These conflicts have both local, regional, and international ramifications.
One could see these elements of protracted conflict playing out in Israel-Palestine since 1948, reflected in deep-seated animosities between Israelis and Palestinians despite having the same Abrahamic origin, multiple wars, involvement of regional and global powers. Peace engagements as in Camp David 1978, Oslo 1993 and Camp David 2000 might have provided temporary relief but they have failed to provide enduring solutions to the conflict.
Life in protracted conflict situations is conflict habituated. For the people living in these situations, violence is an everyday reality. Though both Israel and Palestine have agreed to a negotiated two-state solution, they have differed on how to pursue such a course. Israel has insisted that, among other things, unless terrorist groups like Hamas stop targeting Israel such a solution is not feasible.
As protracted social conflicts are not easily amenable to a solution, the intermediate goal in these situations is how to prevent violence and killing, so that the conflict is managed to a level in which a condition is created, slowly and steadily, for a lasting solution. In the case of Israel-Palestine, peace talks, track two diplomacy, sports, youth exchange programs, peace marathons, walking on the Abrahamic path and such initiatives were steps to create conditions for lasting solution. One of the key elements of conflict management is that, while acknowledging the intractable nature of the conflict, the parties deliberately refrain from violence, killing, kidnapping, dehumanizing the opponent in order to create a path for solution in the long run.
Protracted conflicts also provide an ideal ecosystem for spoilers like Hamas to thrive. Spoilers are those groups in a conflict situation which exploit every opportunity to minimize prospects of peace between rival parties by engaging in violent activities such as killing innocent civilians. The recent attack by Hamas killed more than 1,000 people in Israel, including dozens of U.S. citizens. The conflict is further compounded by countries like Iran openly expressing support for the Hamas attack.
But the Hamas attack not only jeopardized prospects of the conflict management process, but also further escalated the conflict and created conditions for further violence and retaliation. From a rational point of view, the Hamas attack did not further the cause of Palestine as argued by Hamas supporters. The creation of Israel in 1948 and the subsequent wars in the region put the Palestinians in a disadvantageous position, but it makes no rational sense how the Hamas attack helped promote the Palestine cause. The attack undermined the Palestinian cause as it emboldened Israel to retaliate and declare war against the terrorist group. It also undermined the power of the Palestinian authority based in the West Bank to negotiate. Hamas represents a section of hardline Palestinians, but like spoilers in conflict situations it harbors the illusion that it represents all Palestinians.
The Hamas attack added another layer of rigidity to the conflict. As Israel has started its offensive on Gaza, the Hamas stronghold, and targeted Hamas members and assets, the casualties are going to increase in the coming days. Internationally, the Hamas attack might inspire groups like ISIS, Al Qaeda and their sister groups to organize similar attacks in protracted conflict situations in other parts of the world. Already the world witnessing war in Ukraine, chaos in Afghanistan, and religious and identity-based violence in many conflict situations in the world, the recent violence and counter violence in the Middle East, and possible involvement of regional and global powers — which one hopes does not happen, do not provide good signs for peace in the region.
A major challenge before Israel, as it has started its offensive against Hamas, will be avoiding civilian casualties. In a protracted conflict situation, animosities and othering psychology are permeated so deep, it becomes difficult to make a sharp distinction between enemy, enemy sympathizer, and a peaceful individual in the rival camp. This is an unfortunate reality in a protracted conflict situation. Also, a military victory by Israel over Hamas would not end the conflict. The roots of the conflict would remain and find other ways to manifest.
(A modified version of the article was published in Orlando Sentinel, on October 13, 2023: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/10/13/hamas-attack-spoiled-israel-palestine-peace-efforts-and-so-much-more-commentary/)
