November 17, 2025
Despite rising skepticism about the recent ceasefire with reports of violations, it is true that weapons have mostly fallen silent, living hostages released, killings stopped, and there was optimism pervading among both the people directly affected by the protracted conflict and the major players who led this ceasefire happen. Liberal international relations theory and protracted social conflict theory explain some key dimensions of the ceasefire.
The liberal theory posits that peace is best cultivated through cooperation and dialogue. Deriving from Lockean optimism about the human nature and Immanuel Kant’s ‘perpetual peace’, it rests on the premise that states are rational and cooperative, and through interdependent mechanisms they can prosper and enjoy fruits of cooperation. Norman Angell, a proponent of this theory in the early 20th century called war an ‘orthodox statecraft’ and ‘commercially suicidal’ and made a case that through trade and commerce states not only prosper but also coexist peacefully. Cordell Hull, US Secretary of State in the 20th century articulated this liberal vision in these words, “when goods cross borders, soldiers do not.”
President Trump’s efforts to bring the conflicting parties to the negotiating table can be seen through this liberal lens. Whirlwind diplomacy by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff, involving engagement with Israel and Hamas and regional stakeholders like Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, led to the end of the two years of war, which started in October 2023. Trump’s statement at Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, that “we’ve seen those nations that set aside their differences, reached across ancient divides and pursued engagement, are now among the most successful in the region” reflected this liberal theory that emphasized on peaceful resolution of conflicts.
The president further argued, “Instead of making weapons and missiles, the wealth of this region should flow to schools and medicine, industry, and, frankly, the new hot thing, artificial intelligence.” Trump sounded like President Dwight Eisenhower, who said in 1953, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. The world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, and the hopes of its children.”
The emphasis on Abraham Accord, on common identity and building on that identity for peace and cooperation is imbued with a vision of liberal peace in which all sides gain in absolute terms. While Israel received the live hostages and the promise of return of the dead hostages, Gaza gained in terms of cessation of the Israeli military operation and increase in the flow of aid.
The protracted social conflict theory as articulated by Edward Azar provides insights into the recent ceasefire. The theory emphasizes that protracted social conflicts are not easily amenable to final solution as such conflicts like the Israel-Palestine have deep roots in history, culture and religion. The conflict is almost ontological, deeply embedded into the very existence of the people living in the conflict regions. Such conflicts do not have easy solutions, but the theory argues, efforts to minimize the costs of conflict should continue while the leaders from both the sides keep working on long-term solutions. For example, while the 20-point peace plan to resolve the conflict demands long term commitments from all the parties to the conflict, the immediate goal was to stop killing and destruction. The conflict that started in October 2023 with the Hamas terrorists killing the Israelis participating in a music festival, and the later attack by Israel leading to death and destruction in Gaza, need to stop, the theory would argue.
The protracted social conflict theory would also argue that conflict management – in terms of stopping immediate death and destruction – is an interim step towards the final resolution. There is already uneasiness starting to appear, further confirming the shaky nature of the ceasefire. Ceasefire violations have already started. Hamas has started field executions of people in the opposing camps, gathered its forces in Gaza and displayed unwillingness to disarm. Both sides have started exchanging fires. Such violations have raised the prospects of renewal of the war.
Despite its fragile nature, the ceasefire after two years of the Hamas attack and consequent Israeli military operation is no diminutive achievement. The US with its allies in the region should continue peacebuilding and ensure that the parties continue working together to implement the peace plan.
(The article was published in Florida Times-Union, on October 29, 2025)
